Spring revenue forecast released by state

    Juneau, Alaska (KINY) - The spring revenue forecast issued by the State Department of Revenue indicates an increase in unrestricted general fund revenue will be achieved in fiscal years 2021 and 2022. The estimate is $1.7 Billion compared to$1.6 Billion in fiscal year 2020.

    The projected increase for this fiscal year amounts to $332 Million when compared to the Fall forecast and the projection for Fiscal Year 22 is an increase of $460 Million when compared to the Fall forecast.

    In addition, the Permanent Fund is expected to contribute $3.1 Billion to the general fund in both fiscal years 2021 and 2022.
    Between continued low oil prices and continued growth of Alaska's nest egg, the department says the fund is now the largest source of unrestricted general fund revenue contributing 65 percent in fiscal year 2020.  It's projected to contribute at least 58 percent for each of the next ten years.

    The price of oil averaged $51.12 per barrel in fiscal year 2020, according to the forecast.  It's projected to average $53.05 per barrel for fiscal year 2021 and $61 in fiscal year 2022.  Compared to the Fall forecast the price increased by $7.73 for fiscal year 2021 and $13 for fiscal year 2022.  As a result, the Spring forecast has been increased by $332 Million for fiscal year 2021 and $460 Million for fiscal year 2022.

    Alaska North Slope oil production averaged 471,800 barrels per day in fiscal year 2020.  That figure is projected to jump to average 482,000 barrels per day in fiscal year 2021, and then drop to 459,700 barrels in fiscal year 2022, before climbing to 565,500 barrels per day in fiscal year 2030.

    Since the Fall forecast, the oil production forecast has been increased by 4,700 barrels per day for fiscal year 2021 and 20,100 barrels for fiscal year 2022

     

     

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